This Is Why the Upcoming Recession Won’t Kill Your Job Search
All signs point toward continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a possible recession beginning Q4 2023 and into 2024.
Are you thinking of changing jobs? How will this affect you? You may think your options are limited, but they’re better than you think. Here’s why:
- Recessions usually mean layoffs, and while we‘ve seen significant reductions in the high-tech industry, that has already slowed. Job losses will occur, but we predict they will not be as bad as past recessions. In past recessions the labor participation rate grew year over year, but that is not the case in this decade. You may be wondering why? The reason: The generation gap!
- Since 2000 the labor participation rate has declined mostly due to the baby boomer generation leaving the workforce. That generation alone represents 25% of the current workforce. This will result in 9.5% of the civilian labor force being over age 65 by 2030*. At the same time, the number of workers aged 16 to 54 has declined since 2000 and will continue to do so. The result will be a reduction in the total labor force of over 2 million, yes million, workers by 2030.
- Baby boomers were more apt to stay with their employers for 10 years or more, while Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z stay between 2 and 5 years, causing more “churn” in the job market.
So, with the exit of 25% of the labor force, an overall decline in the labor participation rate, and increased job churn, we expect the negative effects of a recession on the job market to be lower than in past recessions. So, go ahead and make that job change!
*According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)